Top ten predictions of the hottest electronic publ

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Top ten predictions of electronic publishing technology

1. When will e-book sales exceed printed books

although the nascent e-book market has many uncertainties, relevant experts are generally optimistic that Huang Rongxun needs to spend a lot of energy to communicate and reconcile with customers in the long term of e-book. As for whether e-book can finally occupy the publishing market, Tim Bray (the founder of textuality and a free consulting company, and also the joint of W3C XML standards) is the most concerned about the four person Advisory Group: "the technology of books has developed rapidly, and has experienced thousands of technological innovations so far." Tim Bray said, "I think the earliest possible time is 2010, because before we can really compete with paper, we have to experience several generations of display technology updates."

2. When will the broadband Internet in the United States be as popular as it is now

although there is no consensus, our expert group believes that broadband Internet will be popularized sooner or later. Tim Bray predicts that this milestone will be reached by 2008, which Jakob Nielsen believes is 2009. Jesse berst and ric K Smolan are relatively conservative and believe that broadband popularization will not be achieved until 2012 and 2015 respectively. Note: jakon Nielsen is the head of Nielsen Norman Group and has many books and works. Jesse berst is the founder and editor in chief of ZDNet anchordesk (the most popular Internet technology at this time, the dynamometer did not contact the launch of the enterprise product standard of the upper platen station). Rich Smolan is the CEO of "against all odds production"

3. When will publishing revenue exceed printing revenue

obviously, this is a meaningful problem. Publishers who charge access fees are still regarded as curiosity driven rather than a viable business model. However, our expert group unanimously predicts that subscription based publications will mature between 2008 and 2015. Some types of reading materials will soon be electronic. As Bray said, "the web has provided many people with most of the technical information they need, so the time is ripe for electronic subscription of this part of the content. For other types of reading materials, such as general magazines, readers will not spend money on these contents, because they can easily get the printed materials of these reading materials"

4. When will English lose its position as the leader of web language

if our expert group predicts correctly, English web publishers will not be in a high position for a long time. Three experts predict that non English stations will be more common than English stations within seven years. Among the three, Jakob Nielsen's prediction is the boldest, "this situation will happen next year", while Bray and Jesse berst are relatively conservative. Berst believes that Chinese is the main driving force behind this trend, and Bray says Internet users will increase significantly in other regions, including Latin America, India and Eastern Europe, where Serbian is used. In any case, "any online publication for the world market must have at least an English version," Bray said

5. When will publishers improve their innovation ability finally eliminate ATEX j11

ATEX's proprietary system j11 has a solid position in the publishing industry. It was, and is still, the most practical choice in the industry. When to eliminate the last ATEX j11 system will create a landmark in newspaper and publishing technology

6. When can microelectronic settlement department win the mass market

our expert group is quite optimistic about the prospect of using microelectronic settlement system to purchase content and services. The three predicted that the microelectronic settlement system will become an important payment system in 2008. Although Bray believes that efficient microelectronic payment systems have a huge market, he is pessimistic: "it is quite difficult to develop an anonymous, reliable and efficient payment system, regardless of structural and political factors. Many developers have tried, but none of them can win much market."

7. When will the top 20 newspapers in the United States be fully digitalized

"paperless newspaper" can make the traditional newsstand business bankrupt? The three experts agreed that important newspapers and periodicals in the United States will eventually eliminate paper publications and accept full electronic publishing. But this is a long-term process: the first fully digital newspaper appeared as early as 2015. Tim Bray's view is different. He believes that newspapers will not eliminate printed matter, but he believes that electronic newspapers will rank among the top 20 newspapers in the United States in 2004. Another related question is how newspapers distribute their digital publications? Jesse berst gave the answer: technical products such as "electronic paper" with low price and flexible performance can have many advantages of traditional paper, so that powerful digital display systems can be developed

8. When can the retail sales exceed the traditional retail sales

our experts believe that traditional retail methods will not disappear: three people doubt whether retail can surpass traditional retail. Rich Smolan believes that this will not happen until at least 2020. Some experts even doubt whether it is meaningful to distinguish between sales and traditional sales, because the combination of the two is becoming more and more popular. "We have no way to distinguish between the two," Jesse berst said. "We can go to the kiosk to choose items in person, or we can choose to order, then go to the kiosk to pick up the goods, or return them to the sales office after ordering. Which of these methods is better or worse?"

9. When will the first e-book be listed in the best seller list of the New York Times

our experts believe that e-book will eventually be able to occupy a place in the best seller list, assuming that electronic image collection can compete with printed books. It is still controversial when it will happen. Jaob Nielsen predicts that the first electronic bestseller will appear in 2003, while others' estimates are more conservative

10. When can flat display outperform CRT display

flat panel display equipment has been available for several years, but its expensive price and complex production technology make it excluded from the mass market. However, our three experts believe that the days of CRT are just around the corner: in the next five years, thin and light flat panel display devices will increasingly become popular consumer goods

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